By Alan Bean
A week ago, I asked “Can the Republicans Romance Latinos?” My conclusion was negative. Immigration reform will require strong bipartisan support and the initial leadership must come from the Republican side of the aisle. Barack Obama’s embrace of mass deportation (we deported more people in 2011 than were deported between 1907 and 1980) shows how desperate Democrats have been to flex their tough-on-immigrants muscle. Obama is unlikely to stick his head out for the Latino community so long as the Republicans are competing to see who can offend Hispanic voters the most. Only if the Republican party moves to the left of the Democrats on this single issue will the dynamics of the immigration debate shift significantly.
And that is unlikely to happen. I argued that a political party that has prospered for two generations by tapping into white racial resentment is unlikely to discard it’s trump card. How can you play to angry white men and advocate meaningful immigration reform at the same time? You can’t.
Of course there is more than one kind of racial resentment. If the Democrats have been undermined by white racial resentment, the Republicans just stumbled over Latino racial resentment. Latinos have good reason to resent both parties, but the Republicans tried to shore up white votes by intentionally demeaning Hispanic voters. It came down to choosing which brand of racial resentment would hurt you the most. Republicans decided, correctly, that they had more to lose by alienating their Tea Party base than they would gain from courting Latino votes. Obama, realizing he couldn’t out-tough the Republicans, wisely decided to toss the Latino electorate a bone.
Republicans should understand that conservative white voters won’t be voting Democrat anytime soon. Unfortunately, it isn’t that simple. Conservative whites will vote Republican even if the party moves to the left on immigration; but a large chunk of the party faithful, perhaps a majority, will voice their displeasure. An internecine civil war will be avoided at all cost.
Barack Obama would likely do his part if the Republicans took the lead on immigration, but he is unlikely to go to the wall on this issue if he isn’t sure his party has his back.
So it comes as no surprise that Chuck Schumer of the Blue Team and Lindsay Graham of the Red Team are now associating “reform” with an even more militarized border and no real path to citizenship for undocumented residents. That kind of talk will get us nowhere.
Seth Wessler, the author of the article pasted below, is the guy I call when I have a question about immigration. He has a thorough grasp of the key issues and the courage to speak painful truth.
Until we get it through our heads that undocumented immigrants are normal men and women with a compelling interest in bettering their lives, we won’t create just policy. Even those who seem willing to grant “amnesty” insist on “sealing the borders” first. That is the approach Ronald Reagan took: “The people that are already here can become citizens, but that’s it.”
In the real world, however, people keep crossing the border no matter how many walls we build or how dangerous the passage. Moreover, in their shoes, we would do the same–if we could summon the courage, that is. (more…)